{"id":4150,"date":"2023-09-18T12:45:53","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T12:45:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thefortune.one\/?p=4150"},"modified":"2023-09-18T12:45:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T12:45:53","slug":"copom-deve-cortar-selic-em-05-p-p-e-sinalizar-manutencao-do-ritmo-diz-goldman-sachs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thefortune.one\/pt\/copom-deve-cortar-selic-em-05-p-p-e-sinalizar-manutencao-do-ritmo-diz-goldman-sachs\/","title":{"rendered":"Copom deve cortar Selic em 0,5 p.p. e sinalizar manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do ritmo, diz Goldman Sachs"},"content":{"rendered":"

Para o banco, colegiado deve sinalizar que manter\u00e1 esse ritmo ao menos at\u00e9 a reuni\u00e3o seguinte<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Copom
Fachada da sede do Banco Central em Bras\u00edlia (DF). Foto: Marcello Casal Jr\/Ag\u00eancia Brasil<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

O Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom) do Banco Central deve reduzir a\u00a0taxa Selic <\/a>\u00a0em 0,5 ponto porcentual na pr\u00f3xima quarta-feira, segundo o Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para o banco americano, o colegiado deve sinalizar que manter\u00e1 esse ritmo de cortes ao menos na reuni\u00e3o seguinte, em 1\u00ba de novembro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEsperamos que o Copom mantenha uma barra relativamente alta para acelerar o ritmo de cortes no curt\u00edssimo prazo\u201d, afirma o diretor de pesquisa macroecon\u00f4mica para Am\u00e9rica Latina do Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O economista lembra que as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o acima das metas, o crescimento resiliente da economia e o mercado de trabalho apertado ainda exigem \u201cprud\u00eancia\u201d do BC na calibragem da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria. Tamb\u00e9m pesam contra uma acelera\u00e7\u00e3o do ciclo o aumento do risco fiscal e os riscos altistas para o IPCA via alimentos e combust\u00edveis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para o banco americano, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do Copom no cen\u00e1rio de refer\u00eancia devem avan\u00e7ar para o fim de 2024 (3,4% para 3,5%) e para o fim de 2025 (3% para 3,1%), considerando a deprecia\u00e7\u00e3o do real, o aumento dos pre\u00e7os de petr\u00f3leo e a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da trajet\u00f3ria de taxa Selic <\/a> embutida no relat\u00f3rio Focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEssas proje\u00e7\u00f5es e o balan\u00e7o de riscos geral para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e3o a chave para calibrar a trajet\u00f3ria da Selic, em particular a taxa terminal e o espa\u00e7o para acelera\u00e7\u00e3o do ciclo de afrouxamento at\u00e9 o fim de 2023\u201d, afirma o economista. \u201cNa ata, vamos procurar a discuss\u00e3o sobre o hiato do produto, dada a recente din\u00e2mica s\u00f3lida de crescimento.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Posi\u00e7\u00e3o de banco brit\u00e2nico<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

O Copom deve seguir o plano de voo divulgado na sua \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o e reduzir a taxa Selic de 13,25% para 12,75% na quarta-feira, afirma o Barclays. O banco brit\u00e2nico espera manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do ritmo de quedas em 0,5 ponto porcentual por reuni\u00e3o, mas reconhece que uma acelera\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 poss\u00edvel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEsperamos que o BC corte a Selic em passos de 0,5 ponto porcentual no futuro pr\u00f3ximo, mas n\u00e3o podemos descartar a possibilidade de cortes maiores mais adiante no ciclo, \u00e0 medida que o horizonte relevante da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria gradualmente muda para 2025\u201d, afirma o economista para Brasil do Barclays, Roberto Secemski, em relat\u00f3rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na semana que vem, o analista espera poucas mudan\u00e7as no comunicado do Copom. Secemski destaca que, desde a \u00faltima decis\u00e3o de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria, em agosto, as expectativas de IPCA de longo prazo continuaram em 3,5% \u2013 0,5 ponto porcentual acima do centro da meta, de 3% -, o PIB do segundo trimestre cresceu mais do que o esperado e a infla\u00e7\u00e3o de servi\u00e7os n\u00e3o desacelerou substancialmente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O Barclays espera redu\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa Selic a 11,75% no fim de 2023 e a 9,5% no t\u00e9rmino do ciclo de cortes, que deve ocorrer em meados de 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fonte:https:\/\/inteligenciafinanceira.com.br\/saiba\/economia\/copom-deve-cortar-selic-em-05-p-p-e-sinalizar-manutencao-do-ritmo-diz-goldman-sachs\/<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para o banco, colegiado deve sinalizar que manter\u00e1 esse ritmo ao menos at\u00e9 a reuni\u00e3o seguinte O Comit\u00ea de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (Copom) do Banco Central deve reduzir a\u00a0taxa Selic \u00a0em 0,5 ponto porcentual na pr\u00f3xima quarta-feira, segundo o Goldman Sachs. Para o banco americano, o colegiado deve sinalizar que manter\u00e1 esse ritmo de cortes ao […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4151,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-fortune-one"],"yoast_head":"\nCopom deve cortar Selic em 0,5 p.p. e sinalizar manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do ritmo, diz Goldman Sachs - The Fortune.one<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Somos especialistas em gest\u00e3o patrimonial, op\u00e7\u00f5es de investimentos para diversos perfis, nosso diferencial \u00e9 comprovado com resultados.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thefortune.one\/pt\/copom-deve-cortar-selic-em-05-p-p-e-sinalizar-manutencao-do-ritmo-diz-goldman-sachs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Copom deve cortar Selic em 0,5 p.p. e sinalizar manuten\u00e7\u00e3o do ritmo, diz Goldman Sachs - 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